Bullish and bearish factors intertwined, with the index price of imported bauxite fluctuating [SMM Bauxite Weekly Review]

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SMM News on June 19:

Domestic bauxite market:

This week, the domestic bauxite market remained quiet, with stable operations prevailing.

As of today, the transaction price for bauxite with an Al/Si ratio of 5.0 and 60% alumina content, excluding VAT, for self pick-up at the crushing plant in Shanxi was approximately 580-620 yuan/mt; in Henan, it was around 550-590 yuan/mt for bauxite with the same Al/Si ratio and alumina content; in Guizhou, it was 410-450 yuan/mt for bauxite with an Al/Si ratio of 5.5 and 58% alumina content; and in Guangxi, it was 320-335 yuan/mt for bauxite with an Al/Si ratio of 6.0 and 53% alumina content.

Imported bauxite market:

According to data from June 13, the total weekly bauxite arrivals at domestic ports were 4.2389 million mt, a decrease of 581,500 mt from the previous week; the total weekly bauxite departures from main ports in Guinea were 4.0746 million mt, an increase of 505,300 mt from the previous week; and the total weekly bauxite departures from main ports in Australia were 1.0374 million mt, an increase of 147,700 mt from the previous week.

In terms of prices, this week saw sluggish spot transactions for imported bauxite, with prices fluctuating. During the week, the offer prices from bauxite holders were somewhat pulled back from high levels; spot alumina prices fell, narrowing the profit margins for alumina, which suppressed the price increase potential for imported bauxite. However, at the same time, the operating capacity of alumina in June was generally higher than that in April-May, leading to some recovery in bauxite demand; long-term contract prices for Q3 were yet to be determined, and considering the impact of the rainy season and the Guinea mining rights incident, bauxite holders had expectations of refusing to budge on prices. Overall, bauxite prices fluctuated, and the subsequent price trend still awaits directional guidance. As of Thursday this week, the CIF price of Guinea bauxite was reported at $74.5/mt, unchanged from last Thursday; the SMM imported bauxite index was reported at $74.43/mt, up $0.08/mt from last Thursday.

SMM Commentary:In the short term, the bauxite market is influenced by a mix of bullish and bearish factors, with prices mainly fluctuating. For the subsequent price trend, continuous attention should be paid to the impact of the rainy season in Guinea and changes in the operating capacity of downstream alumina.

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